McCain is now almost a 7 to 1 shot in a two horse race. Given the volatility of US presidential races, that's got to be worth a shot: how many people are telling pollsters that they will vote Obama who, when it comes down to it, will vote McCain? Quite a few, I reckon. I note from this old BBC story that on 5 September 2000, Al Gore was ten points ahead of Bush in the polls and pulling away. I know we're much later on in the campaign than 5 September, but even so I still found that surprising.
And, in case you missed it, a few days ago William Hill temporarily suspended taking bets on proof of the existence of alien life on the back of a run of heavy betting. Seriously. Watch the skies...
Finally: occasional commenter here j-g (who mostly can be roused to comment when I playfully point out the liberal and farsighted nature of Palin's policy on 'reproductive rights') is a renowned and skilful gambler, as well as being connected in the world of publishing. I note that the Booker prize was won, yet again, by someone other than the favourite. JMP would be interested in any comment j-g might have on this strange phenomenom of the Booker favourite never winning?
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4 comments:
I think 'renowned' is more accurate than 'skilful' but very good flattery, well done.
I put a £10 bet on McCain earlier this week. He was 3-1 then though. (See 'skilful' - question mark.) Even I don't think he'll win, but at least if he does I'll have £30 to cheer me up. Weighed against the prospect of 4 years of having to point out that Sarah Palin is a disaster for feminism, it's not that tempting a prospect, but still ...
I'm too upset to talk about the Booker. I lost £25 (£10 on Linda Grant and £15 on Steve Toltz - and neither was the favourite, not that it helped them any). I think the reason the favourite never wins might have something to do with the judges wanting to pick a 'surprise' choice to get attention. I also think it's incredibly hard for bookies to predict an outcome which is based on the personal tastes of a random few people.
p.s. I agree with what you say about pollsters: people often lie, especially when pretending to be more liberal than they actually are. That's partly why I placed the bet: never miss an opportunity to profit from people's secret racist tendencies, that's my motto.
Right, that's convinced me, if j-g has bet on mccain, it's time for me to do so too. If I end up on an 'Alan from the Archers'-style slide into addiction, don't blame yourself.
I would wait until 3 November. McCain is probably going to slip further, maybe up to 10 or 12 by polling day, so better to wait. No one thinks McCain can win, but if he enjoys a "Bradley bounce" in the first couple of states to declare, his odds will cut in half, enabling you to trade out and double your money.
Mind you, at 500:1 SP is surely worth a punt, as an "accumulator" on McCain winning but pegging it before January.
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